When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the prospects for Moldova did not look good. But four years have now passed and, despite a relentless Russian campaign to destabilise the country, Moldova has survived and made significant progress.

It has, for example, progressed on its path to EU membership. Moldova transitioned from applicant to candidate status several months after the outbreak of the war and formally opened accession negotiations two years later. The government is now carrying out reforms to align with EU standards.

Such progress was not a foregone conclusion given the many challenges Moldova has faced as a result of the war in Ukraine. The country was an early destination for Ukrainian refugees, which put significant pressure on already stretched public services and resources.

With a decades-old foothold in Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova, Russia also seemed to have a springboard for conflict escalation in Ukraine’s rear. This foothold gave Moscow a possible destination to push westwards along the Black Sea coast, too.

Russian false-flag operations in April 2022 seemingly provided further evidence that Moscow planned to destabilise Moldova. And one year later, the so-called soccer plot underscored Moscow’s intention to continue its efforts against Moldova. This was a Russian-planned and sponsored attempt to infiltrate Moldova with saboteurs from Russia, Montenegro, Belarus and Serbia.

Perhaps the most serious challenge for Moldova came in January 2025, when........

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