The 60-day ceasefire signed by the US and Iran three weeks ago fell apart on July 8. Iran targeted vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz without its say-so, prompting the US to respond with strikes against a range of military targets in the Islamic Republic.

President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over”, saying further talks would be a “waste of time”, and the two sides have subsequently exchanged further rounds of attacks. We asked Scott Lucas, an expert in Middle East and US politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin, to explain why the conflict appears to have restarted and what might happen next.

Why has Iran started this conflict up again – wasn’t the 14-point deal generally thought of as a victory for them?

The clashes arise from the quest for control of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which around 20% of the world’s maritime oil and gas passes. Iran established that control days after the war began. The Trump camp needs to break it; otherwise, they will have to negotiate a deal based largely on Iranian terms.

Several rounds of clashes have taken place since the initial ceasefire was declared in April. Iran attacks a few vessels trying to cross the strait without Tehran’s permission, preventing the US from establishing a shipping corridor off the Omani coast that is outside Iranian control. The US military responds with strikes on Iranian military sites around its southern coast. After a few days, each side pulls back.

However, there is one twist in the latest cycle. The US........

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