National NAPLAN results for 2026 are released today. This is the test of Australian students’ literacy and numeracy skills in years 3, 5, 7 and 9.

The Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority (which runs the test) has pointed to a “concerning” drop in Year 3 numeracy. It has hailed “signs of improvement” for other year levels in maths. It also reports that average reading scores in Years 5, 7 and 9 are lower than in 2025.

But the most remarkable takeaway from this year’s NAPLAN? None of the results are really any better or worse than those recorded since the NAPLAN scale was reset in 2023. What is going on?

Read more: NAPLAN results are coming home. Here’s what parents should keep in mind

Each result in 2026 is close to all other results in recent years.

When we track groups of students going through school, all the small differences in averages between 2023, 2024, 2025 or 2026 are (according to the definition provided by the testing authority) “negligible in size”.

Given it is easier to find statistically significant group differences in large samples, no significant differences between any cohorts since 2023 is really remarkable.

Graphs presenting NAPLAN results inevitably show trends that are likely to be misinterpreted in public analysis of the tests.

For example, numeracy scores for Years 5 and 7 have trended upwards since 2023. But the improvements of 6.1 and 9.5 scale scores (respectively) are small, given the scale spans from 1 to 1,000.

Year 3 numeracy scores have........

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