If you’re planning on a winter break to Cuba, get ready for an adventure rather than a vacation. If you’re wondering if United States President Donald Trump’s oil embargo will shatter Cuba’s Communist government, dig in for a drawn-out slog. And if you’re Cuban, brace for a nightmare.

Cuba is on the brink of one of the worst social and economic catastrophes since the 1959 revolution. Energy sources are sparse. The electrical grid is in tatters.

Inflation is over 15 per cent, with the peso tumbling in value. Tropical diseases like dengue, chikunguny and Oropuche virus are surging, largely because the municipal waste system in Havana ground to a halt in 2025.

As many as two million Cubans have left the country since 2021. Infant mortality spiked from five per 1,000 live births in 2021 to 14 per 1,000 in late 2025.

And now, revenue streams from tourism, international medical co-operation and pharmaceutical production are all but dried up. Some 5,000 Cubans volunteered as mercenaries to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine since 2022. Cuba is hurting.

Cuba’s current pain may not be enough to topple its Communist government, despite the desires of many Cuban exiles. Nor is the current crisis all Trump’s work. Cuba is a victim of the breakdown of the old international rules-based order.

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The U.S. has long targeted Cuba through various economic weapons dating from the early 1960s. One of the most vicious was the Helms-Burton Act that not only prohibited U.S. companies from doing business with Cuba, but also punished companies in other countries for dealing with both Cuba and the U.S.

In his second term, U.S. President Barack Obama eased travel restrictions for Americans visiting Cuba along with some trade policies, but this was short-lived. Trump restored........

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