Why would a young Republican back solar power but reject a carbon tax? Why would two Democrats agree that climate change is real but split over a policy that would charge households more if they exceeded a monthly limit on energy use?

Those patterns may go against the partisan rhetoric of our times, but they reflect the reality that Americans do not sort neatly into simple camps on climate change.

We study complex systems. In a new paper, we analyzed 20 years of Gallup environmental surveys, digging into individual responses from 2000 to 2020 that aren’t released to the public. We wanted to look beyond the usual headline that Democrats and Republicans disagree when it comes to climate change.

Rather than treating age, education, income and ethnicity as separate influences, we studied how they combine inside each party to shape climate beliefs and support for specific policies.

This deeper, more nuanced view changes the story by identifying people as more than just their political affiliations. To be clear, political party is still the strongest divide, but it does not tell us enough on its own. The same policy can mean very different things to different people, even within the same party.

We found several enduring themes.

1. Climate polarization deepened after 2017

A broad partisan split already existed, but it sharpened after Donald Trump first won election to the presidency in 2016. In Gallup polling from 2017, concern about global warming jumped among Democrats and independents, while Republicans stayed far less worried.

In those first months, Trump moved quickly against Obama-era climate policies: His administration removed Environmental Protection Agency climate-related webpages, proposed deep EPA budget cuts and then moved to dismantle policies meant to reduce power plant........

© The Conversation