Many provisions in the huge tax-and-spending package that President Donald Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025, sometimes called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, will influence how much money Americans give to charity.

We conduct in-depth research on philanthropy. Together, we have analyzed the tax policy changes.

After crunching the numbers, we predict that the number of U.S. donors will rise, but that individuals, families and corporations will give less overall. We estimate that giving will be around US$5.7 billion less due to these tax policy changes, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2026. That’s roughly 1% of the nearly $600 billion Americans gave in 2024.

Everyone gets a charitable deduction

As the reforms take effect, the provision likeliest to affect the most Americans should increase giving.

All taxpayers will finally get something that many nonprofit leaders had long sought: a universal charitable deduction.

The new rule will allow people who file on their own to shave up to $1,000 off their taxable income, or $2,000 for married couples who file jointly. Those amounts will not be adjusted for future inflation and will remain the same unless Congress changes them. They won’t affect anyone’s 2025 tax bill, but they will play a role in 2026 and beyond, especially when Americans file their 2026 tax returns in 2027.

The way this works is fairly simple. If a single person gives up to $1,000 or a married couple who file their taxes jointly give $2,000 to charity in a calendar year, they can deduct that much from their taxable income if they do not itemize their taxes.

This new deduction will allow every American individual and family to deduct charitable gifts, at least up to these limits. In practice, if your marginal tax rate is 22%, taking the charitable deduction could cut your tax bill by $220 if you file on your own and $440 if you’re married and file with your spouse, and this opportunity is available for the 90% of households who claim the standard deduction when they file their taxes.

The standard deduction is a fixed amount that all taxpayers may........

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