President Donald Trump won 43% of the Hispanic vote in 2024, up from 35% in 2020 – a big gain for Republicans. Now, as the midterms approach, Hispanic Americans across party lines are losing faith in the American Dream, and his administration’s immigration crackdown appears to be part of the reason.

Arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement of people with no criminal record are surging. Federal immigration agents have shot at nearly two dozen people – most of them Latino – since last year, according to The New York Times. Those include the fatal shootings of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Texas and Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Maine.

This climate of aggressive immigration enforcement may be affecting Hispanic Americans’ sense of belonging and their belief that they can pursue a better life in the United States. The Public Religion Research Institute 2026 survey on American identity asked more than 5,000 adults about their thoughts on the American Dream: the idea that if you work hard, you’ll get ahead. Just 40% of Hispanic Americans say that dream holds true today, down from 52% just two years ago.

I’m the director of research at PRRI, and I study public opinion and immigration. I recently analyzed nearly 700 survey responses from Hispanic Americans to understand which factors are associated with........

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