The mood regarding the war in Ukraine has changed in recent months. Ukrainian drones have struck Russian oil infrastructure, causing fuel shortages across Russia. And the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is exuberant about finishing the war from a “position of strength”.

The hope is that an economic crisis in Russia leads to social unrest and political instability, possibly resulting in the collapse of the ruling regime. This would not be an unprecedented event in Russian history. The Soviet Union rapidly unravelled amid economic and political crisis in 1991. But how likely is this scenario for Russia today?

I have travelled to Russia yearly since 2022 and there has been a clear change in the mood. In 2022, it was all about survival and adapting to the new reality of sanctions and war. Over the next couple of years, there was stabilisation and growing optimism about the economy’s ability to adapt. However, by 2026 there was talk of an economic recession, even before the current fuel shortages hit.

With the economy at full capacity and military spending remaining untouchable, shrinking the civilian sector through high interest rates and taxes is the only way to tame inflation and balance the budget. VAT was increased from 20% to 22% in January 2026, while taxes on small and medium-sized enterprises were raised.

At the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, it was suggested that tough times are likely to continue for at least three years. The question now is whether these economic........

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