One Nation has won the Farrer federal byelection – the first time the party has won an election for a federal House of Representatives seat. At the same time, the Liberal vote has crashed, with independent Michelle Milthorpe running second on Saturday night.

The byelection in the regional New South Wales seat was triggered by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s resignation. At the 2025 general election, Ley had defeated independent Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer by 56.2–43.8.

With 41% of enrolled voters counted for the byelection, The Poll Bludger’s results system is projecting that One Nation’s David Farley will defeat Milthorpe by 58.0–42.0 when all votes are counted.

Current primary votes are 42.3% Farley (up 35.1% on One Nation’s 2025 vote), 25.6% Milthorpe (up 7.0%), 11.2% Liberals (down 32.2%) 9.7% Nationals (new), 2.7% Legalisse Cannabis (new), 2.4% Greens (down 2.8%) and 2.0% Shooters (down 1.7%). Labor didn’t contest after winning 15.1% in 2025.

Projections for final primary votes are 41.7% Farley, 27.0% Milthorpe, 11.3% Liberals and 9.9% Nationals. The majority of preferences come from the Liberals and Nationals to One Nation, and Milthorpe’s preference share of 48.0% is higher than I expected given the unfavourable sources. But One Nation’s large lead on primary votes will give them an easy win after preferences.

National polls have recently had One Nation in second place on primary votes behind Labor and ahead of the Coalition. If these polls are accurate, One Nation should be winning seats like Farrer, which is rural and strongly conservative.

YouGov poll:........

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