Five federal polls have been released in the last week, with three of them having some fieldwork after the Coalition split on January 22. One Nation is in second place on primary votes in the YouGov and DemosAU polls, leading the Coalition by five points in YouGov and three points in DemosAU.

In Morgan, the Coalition and One Nation are tied at 22.5% each, while Essential gives the Coalition a three-point lead. The Freshwater poll was conducted before the Coalition split, and gives the Coalition a nine-point lead.

Two polls have given a Labor versus One Nation two-party estimate. In YouGov, Labor led One Nation by 57–43, compared with a 55–45 Labor lead against the Coalition. This was despite primary votes of 31% Labor, 25% One Nation and 20% Coalition.

An early January Fox & Hedgehog poll gave Labor a 56–44 lead against One Nation, compared with 53–47 against the Coalition, from primary votes of 29% Labor, 25% Coalition and 21% One Nation.

Analyst Kevin Bonham said that in the Senate at the 2025 election, with exhaust removed, nationally Coalition preferences favoured One Nation over Labor by 75.6–24.4, while Greens preferences were stronger for Labor against One Nation than against the Coalition.

As the Senate uses an electronic distribution of preferences, all preference flows can be obtained from the electoral commission’s data. This is not the case for the House of Representatives, where only minor party preference flows between Labor and the Coalition are recorded.

Furthermore, the Coalition has already lost its right-wing supporters to One Nation, so preferences of remaining Coalition voters may be better for Labor.

Compared with late December or early to mid-January issues of the same polls, there have been primary vote gains for Labor, suggesting the Bondi effect is fading. The last issue........

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