One Nation has gained one to three points in all five federal post-budget polls. The YouGov and Morgan polls agree with the Resolve poll in having Labor down, but retaining a clear lead.

Analyst Kevin Bonham gives Labor a 52.4–47.6 lead against the Coalition, a 0.8-point gain for the Coalition since the budget. He gives Labor a 52.9–47.1 lead against One Nation, a 0.6-point gain for One Nation.

This article also includes state polls from New South Wales and Tasmania. The NSW election is in March 2027.

A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted May 12–19 from a sample presumably of 1,500, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (down two since the previous YouGov poll in late April to early May), One Nation 25% (up one), the Coalition 23% (up two), the Greens 13% (down one), independents 5% (steady) and others 6% (steady).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a four-point gain for One Nation. In the last three YouGov polls, Labor has led One Nation by 52–48, 57–43 and now 53–47.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was down........

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