With eight days until the November 3 US midterm elections, Democrats have a three in four chance of gaining control of the Senate, and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in Nate Silver’s forecast model.

Democrats lead Republicans by 9.5 points on the generic ballot, and Donald Trump’s net approval is -23.3. There hasn’t been much change in the forecast during October.

If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, perhaps with huge losses.

With the oil price surging recently, petrol prices are likely to increase again before the midterms.

In Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -23.3. Currently, 60.2% disapprove of his performance and 36.9% approve. Trump’s net approval had fallen to a new low of -24.3 last Wednesday before rising slightly.

In an October 19–20 YouGov poll, by 66–3 respondents sympathised more with Ukraine than Russia in the Ukraine–Russia war, but by 45–16 they thought Trump sympathised more with Russia. Trump’s October 9 announcement of a diesel import deal with Russia hasn’t helped him.

Trump’s net approval was -22.3 in my October 19 article. His net approval had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling back.

Trump’s........

© The Conversation