Following the dramatic political upheaval of September 2025, uncertainty reigns in Nepal ahead of elections planned for early March. In this moment of transition, the political, economic, and legal dimensions of the domestic crisis have received considerable attention, but the role of external actors remains relatively underexplored.

As Nepal navigates this political inflection point, both India and China are closely monitoring developments. For India, Nepal’s political stability is closely linked to border security and the preservation of democratic institutions. China, by contrast, emphasizes stability to safeguard its sovereignty concerns under the “One China Principle” and to limit external influence. While both countries prioritize stability in Nepal, they pursue this goal through different strategic frameworks and political engagements.

Domestic Snapshot

Political uncertainty continues to define Nepal, despite the formation of an interim government and the announcement of an election date following the Gen Z protests. The interim government has initiated several measures to facilitate the electoral process, including updating the voters’ list, amending the Proportional Representation (PR) electoral system, convening all-party meetings, and engaging with Gen Z representatives. Interim Prime Minister Sushila Karki sought technical assistance from India and China and implemented strategies to enhance law and order: the Nepali Army has been asked to support the Nepal Police and Armed Police during the elections.

The government has assured political parties of its commitment to fostering a free, fair, credible, and peaceful electoral environment for the March 5 polls. Of the 143 registered political parties, more than 125 have re-registered to participate, including the Nepali Congress (NC), the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML), and the former Maoist party, the Nepal Communist Party (NCP).

On October 17, 2025, Karki convened a meeting with mission heads, diplomatic representatives, and development partners to solicit their support for the elections. Given the interests of India and China in assisting the electoral process, the Karki administration prepared distinct requests for technical support from both nations. Subsequently, the Election Commission specified the types of assistance required and submitted the requests to the Ministry of Finance.

Although the government appears well-prepared for the elections, uncertainty looms large, primarily due to frequent statements from established political parties about security and the legality of the interim government. The writs (nearly a dozen) filed by the UML and the NC with the Supreme Court regarding the reinstatement of the House of Representatives (HR) and challenging the constitutionality of the appointment of Sushila Karki as prime minister have further complicated the matter. Addressing the inaugural session of the CPN-UML 11th General Convention, K. P. Sharma Oli cast doubt on the March 5 elections and laid out UML’s position on the restoration of the HR. Similarly, Shekhar Koirala of the NC stated that “We are waiting for the election date, but observing the government’s........

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