Sign up for the Slatest to get the most insightful analysis, criticism, and advice out there, delivered to your inbox daily.

Democrats were once ready to write off Iowa. After decades of being the quintessential swing state, it seemed the rise of Donald Trump had shifted the Hawkeye State back to being safely Republican. By 2024, there was not a single Democrat in its entire congressional delegation, the GOP had supermajorities in both chambers of the state Legislature, and a state that Barack Obama won twice had been won three times in a row by Donald Trump.

That’s not the case anymore. Democrats have made a remarkable comeback in Iowa in just two years. The state that Trump won by more than 13 points in 2024 has now become the central political battlefield in the midterms. Three of its four congressional seats are in play, and its races for governor and Senate are among the most closely contested in the country.

For Josh Turek, the state’s Democratic Senate nominee, Iowa was never as right-wing as it appeared to be. “People will look at us and will say, ‘Well, you’re a state that Trump carries, you know, by 12 points, and he wins by three times.’ ” However, the two-term state representative and gold medal–winning Paralympian argued, “for 30 years we elected Sen. Tom Harkin”—a liberal Democrat—“right along with [conservative Republican Sen. Chuck] Grassley. We twice voted for Obama. We have more Obama–Trump counties than any other state in the union.”

Turek added: “In Trump’s last midterm, we won three of the four congressional races, 3 points away from winning all four. And things are much, much worse here in Iowa than they were then.”

“I think that without a doubt, the tariffs and the war in Iran has hurt Iowa more than any other state. Gas prices have gone up more in Iowa than nearly any other state, and you’re looking at diesel prices at an all-time high at a time when farmers are going in to do their harvesting,” he argued.

Turek started the cycle as a long shot in a race where the GOP had anointed Rep. Ashley Hinson as the Senate candidate to replace two-term Republican Joni Ernst. Hinson........

© Slate