Share this Story : The Sarnia Observer Copy Link Email X Reddit Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr

Weather forecasting is a game of chance: Philp

We expect science to be exact, yet weather forecasting often feels like a game of chance. The truth is that predicting the weather is arguably one of the most complex scientific endeavors we undertake.

I have often said that little girls and boys who tell lies grow up to work as weather forecasters.

While mostly spoken in jest after being caught in a sudden downpour without an umbrella, it speaks to a universal frustration.

Weather forecasting is a game of chance: Philp Back to video

We expect science to be exact, yet weather forecasting often feels like a game of chance. The truth is that predicting the weather is arguably one of the most complex scientific endeavors we undertake.

To understand why weather forecasting is such a chancy business, we must look at how forecasts are traditionally made. Meteorologists do not simply guess; they rely on massive numerical weather prediction models. These models take current observations from satellites, weather balloons, radar, and ground stations, and then apply the laws of physics to project how the atmosphere will change over time.

The atmosphere is essentially a fluid in constant motion, wrapping around a rotating, uneven globe heated by the sun.

The equations........

© Sarnia Observer