Containment That Causes Iran To Capitulate or Crumble
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President Trump has seemingly settled into a new long-term strategy against the Islamic Republic of Iran after the United States has fallen short of strategic success through military and diplomatic means. The new strategy hinges on economic asphyxiation, supported by the military, to contain and isolate the Iranian regime.
The logic of such a strategy is based on pressure – increasing it on the regime and decreasing it on the United States and the global economy. The blockade and additional sanctions are intended to strangle the regime, eliminating the resources necessary for them to repress internally and threaten externally. Iran faced dire economic conditions even before the 12-day war in 2025, and their current situation is significantly worse.
On the other hand, relaxed pressure on friendly interests has been facilitated by improved flow of resources through or around the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Iran’s malign intent, experts suggest that the friendly flow might be up to two-thirds of prewar levels. Combined with the economic isolation of Iran, it provides a strategic calculus that favors U.S. interests. But at what cost and to what purpose?
There are two notable shortcomings of the strategy provided by Operation Economic Outcast. Both are related to the timeline. First, while the current situation contains the regime, there is no promise for quick strategic success. Vice President Vance acknowledged that challenge late last week.
With a nebulously long timeline, the second shortcoming is based on the significant burden placed on the U.S. military and the associated opportunity costs on U.S. global interests and commitments. In order to defend itself and U.S. interests against Iran, enforce the blockade, and........
