Cardboard box demand is flashing a U.S. recession signal

International Paper and other major box makers are cutting capacity, signaling a potential slowdown for the broader U.S. economy

Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The biggest cardboard box maker in America finished shutting down two mills in Georgia a couple weeks ago, wiping out more than a thousand jobs. On its own, the decision by International Paper might look like cost cutting in a tired industrial sector. But together with other recent pullbacks across the industry, it could be an economic warning light.

Economists have long looked to the cardboard box sector as a proxy for real-world demand. Everything from refrigerators to frozen pizzas travel in them. They pile up on porches, fill warehouse loading bays, and line recycling bins. When manufacturing is increasing and companies expect to sell more stuff, they order more boxes. When demand is weakening those orders drop off, and it can be an early sign that the economy is faltering.

Now,........

© Quartz