We systematically underestimate global progress on many objective measures.

Our brains are biased toward threats, and modern information environments amplify that bias.

Looking back, we know how previous crises ended, while today’s threats remain unresolved.

There’s a palpable sense that we’re living through unprecedentedly dangerous and uncertain times, with roughly a third of Americans today believing the world will end in their lifetime. But is this doomsday thinking grounded in reality? Or are there psychological mechanisms that lead almost every generation to feel they are living through the worst period in history?

Politics feels obnoxiously precarious, young people are facing a mental health crisis, horrific wars dominate the news, and warnings about artificial intelligence (AI) posing an existential threat are increasingly hard to ignore. Some indicators of human progress have genuinely worsened. Yet, by many objective measures, we are still living through one of the safest and most prosperous periods in history.

The question is why don’t we seem to feel a sense of progress alongside our tribulations?

In many cases, our pessimism about the world directly contradicts reality. A majority of people surveyed believed global poverty had increased over recent decades, when in fact it has fallen dramatically. People consistently overestimate rates of violent crime, believe child........

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