Election betting boom sparks midterm brawl in California

Millions of dollars are pouring into prediction markets for California campaigns as concerns ratchet up over insider trading and risks to democracy.

PolyMarket CEO Shayne Coplan, right, and UFC CEO Dana White pose for a picture on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Nov. 13, 2025. | Seth Wenig/AP

SAN FRANCISCO — Eric Swalwell has made a habit of posting and sending out screenshots of his betting odds in the race for California governor.

The Bay Area Democrat has every reason to keep at it, holding frontrunner status on the most popular prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, for months.

But he’s hardly alone in tracking performance on the platforms, where millions of dollars are flowing, and politicians are starting to promote wagers — alongside more traditional metrics like polling and fundraising — to demonstrate momentum in the midterms.

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