Despite years of China-threat rhetoric, Australia’s trade, infrastructure and consumer markets remain deeply shaped by practical engagement with China.

Almost 20 years ago, China overtook Japan as Australia’s top trading partner. This Sino-focused trading relationship underpinned Australia’s record-breaking run of recession-free growth from 1991 to 2020.

However, an intensifying ‘China Threat’ narrative began to emerge in Australia around a decade ago. By 2018, the Turnbull government in Canberra had unwisely banned Huawei (the then best global provider) from participating in the build-out of Australia’s 5G network. Hostile political accusations directed at Beijing from Canberra were subsequently amplified by the Morrison government as the COVID19 pandemic spread.

Next came the “Red Alert” series of orchestrated, wilfully alarming media reports in 2023. These claimed that Australia had to be ready to fight China within three years!

Former Prime Minister, Paul Keating said, at the time, that the primary author involved had been allowed “to concoct a China-threat story aided by a group of handpicked anti-China accomplices, to produce the most egregious and provocative news presentation I have witnessed in over 50 years of active public life”. In 2026, as Australia predictably discovered it was not at war with China, Keating dryly noted, on the three-year anniversary of the original story, that: “None of the claims have materialised.”

Notwithstanding all this mainstream media, anti-China scheming, Australia has continued to run very healthy annual trade surpluses with China, year after year. According to Statista, despite the shrinking value of certain commodity exports, Australia still has the fourth largest trade surplus with China behind Taiwan, South Korea and Brazil.

When you consider the overall report card today on the relationship, Australia’s semi-bi-polar posturing with respect to China continues – almost comically at times.

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