A new El Niño will likely bring heatwaves, droughts and health problems to southern Australia. In the UK, it’s already too hot for a warm beer. Wealthy nations are making very slow progress on emissions reductions.

El Niño is coming and health will suffer

I don’t think that I need to tell P&I readers that an El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean, that the atmospheric and ocean measurements indicate it will be a strong one, or that El Niños tend to bring hotter, drier conditions in spring and early summer to eastern and southern Australia all the way across to WA.

It is, however, important to note that very high air and water measurements in the central Pacific now (summarised as a high ENSO Index) do not necessarily translate into very high temperatures and very severe droughts in Australia later in the year – there are many other factors that influence our weather. Nevertheless, Australia needs to be prepared for heat waves, droughts, bushfires, water shortages, unseasonal frosts (because of the reduced cloud cover), crop losses, food shortages, loss of wildlife and bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.

While El Niño does not cause global warming and global warming does not cause El Niño, the addition of a strong El Niño to the global warming of around 1.4oC caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases considerably increases the likelihood of a very warm second half of 2026 and first quarter of 2027 in Australia. And remember that, although the cooler La Niña phase of the cycle has prevailed over the last three years, these years have been the hottest on record.

Also, while El Niño refers to air and water conditions in the Pacific, its effects on weather are felt globally.

As well as signalling problems for Australia’s environment and economy, El Niño’s hot, dry conditions are also very harmful for human health:

Extreme weather events: Australians are well aware that the heatwaves, bushfires, droughts and floods that can occur in hot summers often lead to injuries, pollution-induced respiratory problems, heat stroke, burns and drownings. Hot conditions can also disrupt people’s normal medication routines and some medications make people more sensitive to warm conditions. Extreme weather events can also lead to food shortages, higher food prices and food insecurity both locally and in the markets supplied, and, in some parts of the globe, malnutrition.

Infectious diseases: Warmer weather makes more places........

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