The Australian Government’s soon-to-be-released first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), which will be focused on domestic climate risks, has received some recent media coverage here and  here. Here is the story on the long evolution of the NCRA and what to expect.

Australia has never had a comprehensive climate risk assessment. It has been a glaring omission because such assessments are a necessary basis for efficacious climate mitigation and adaptation policymaking.

In 2021, the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG), a group of former defence and security leaders, proposed to the Labor Opposition (and the Morrison Government) that a comprehensive climate risk assessment be undertaken as a matter of urgency, and this was included in the ALP’s 2022 election platform. The case was made in an ASLCG report, Missing in action.

Shortly after coming to power, in mid-2022 the Albanese Government decided to split the task in two, with priority given to a regionally-focused climate-and-security risk assessment to be conducted quickly by the Office of National Intelligence (ONI), so it could feed into the Defence Strategic Review, which was basically a justifying-AUKUS exercise. The DSR gave scant regard to climate risks, despite the ONI report being very frank.

Before work on the ONI report had started, ASLCG provided an  Implementation Proposal for the risk assessment/s, highlighting what appropriate methods would be, and warning of potential pitfalls.

The ONI report was delivered to the National Security Committee of Cabinet in December 2022, where it caused some shock and awe with members saying they had never heard anything like it before, which is unsurprising given the previous government’s climate denial, but also pointing to a lack of inquisitiveness about climate impacts and disruption amongst cabinet members.

ONI’s report was securitised by the prime minister’s office, with no declassified version released, unlike the practice of........

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