The concept of grey zone warfare emerged in the 21st century after the development of nuclear weapons. Due to nuclear weapons, countries started to avoid direct war between them, so they used ambiguous methods to achieve their national interests. This situation is between peace and conflict, as states are aggressive; they want an open war, but also, they fear nukes, so they promote cooperation through various means, either coercive or persuasive. This situation between peace (white) and conflict (black) is known as “grey zone warfare.”

The grey zone is warfare, not war. Collin Grey explains, “War is a relationship between belligerents, not necessarily states. Warfare is the conduct of war, primarily, though not exclusively, by military means. The two concepts are not synonymous. There is more to war than warfare.” War has a purpose; war asks about “why,” whereas warfare is about the means. It asks “what” tools, instruments, weapons, and technologies, and “how” tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) were used.

There are four quadrants of warfare, which include regular warfare, irregular warfare, competition, and deterrence. The competition stage is known as a grey zone, as there is no direct war between the states; rather, they use political, economic, and cyber tactics to subjugate the enemy. Deterrence is used to prevent further escalations. There are some key characteristics of grey zone warfare, which include:

Avoiding the Threshold: States avoid regular and even irregular warfare.

Gradual Unfolding: States take small actions rather than acting aggressively.

Attribution Ambiguity: States conduct operations covertly.

“The most dangerous conflicts today are not always wars in the conventional sense; they are ‘grey zone’ conflicts that use ambiguity, proxies, and non-military tools to achieve strategic goals.” NATO Review 2018

“The most dangerous conflicts today are not always wars in the conventional sense; they are ‘grey zone’ conflicts that use ambiguity, proxies, and non-military tools to achieve strategic goals.”

Instruments of Grey Zone Warfare

Countries use the following instruments to avoid war and promote cooperation:

States use political tools to manipulate the political environment of an adversary state. To achieve this goal, they use diplomats and international organisations for negotiations.........

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