In February 2026, two wars simultaneously broke out on the western borders of Pakistan. These included the Afghanistan-Pakistan War and the US-Iran War. The Pakistan-Afghanistan War was triggered by Operation Ghazab Lil Haq, launched by the Pakistan Army on 26 February 2026, targeting the Taliban government, which Islamabad alleges provides havens to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Afghanistan. The US-Iran War, driven by Iran’s advancing nuclear program and the collapse of diplomatic negotiations, erupted on February 28, 2026, when the United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran.

Within a span of four months, the two wars began shifting the trend of militant violence in Pakistan differently across regions. In KP, the wars led to a temporary spike in militant attacks, but the frequency soon declined below the pre-war level, while in Balochistan, the insurgent activity escalated. Simultaneously, the Afghanistan frontier transformed from a zone of sporadic border skirmishes into a zone of open conventional warfare; the Iran-Pakistan border transformed from a relatively neglected area into a vital and highly monitored security zone; and Pakistan’s broader economy faced severe upheaval driven by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.

Pre-war Militant Landscape of Pakistan

Before the onset of both wars, Pakistan’s internal and external risk profile was marked by persistent yet declining militant attacks, intermittent firefights on the northwestern border, low-level militant volatility on the southwestern frontier, and a gradually recovering economy. In January 2026, 87 militant attacks were reported in the country, due to which 119 civilians and security personnel lost their lives. The following month, 83 attacks took place and killed a total of 139 people. This evidence indicates that before the start of the two wars, the trend of militant violence in the country was characterized by low-frequency, high-intensity attacks.

Simultaneously, the border with Afghanistan was marked by persistent brief clashes, while the Iran-Pakistan border remained relatively peaceful with reports of occasional Baloch militant activity. However, economically, the country was gradually moving towards stability. The forex reserves of Pakistan were registered at $20.97 billion at the end of January 2026, and the current account documented a surplus of $121 million. All of this signalled a gradual macroeconomic stabilization.

Militant Threat Landscape of KP: Before & After the Start of the Two Wars

The militant threat landscape of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa altered briefly amid the ongoing Pakistan-Afghanistan War but gradually returned to near pre-war dynamics. KP region........

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