On July 9, 2026, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Australia, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the sale of uranium to India under the 2015 Australia-India Nuclear Cooperation Agreement. The agreement aims to expand non-fossil fuel power generation while ensuring compliance with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards and the peaceful use of nuclear energy. However, history suggests that peaceful nuclear cooperation has, at times, contributed indirectly to the strengthening of military nuclear capabilities. Australia’s decision to supply uranium to India has therefore renewed serious concerns about the global non-proliferation regime, transparency, and broader strategic stability in South Asia.

Uranium acquired for peaceful purposes could indirectly contribute to military capabilities despite being subject to IAEA safeguards. India maintains separate civilian and military nuclear facilities, making it difficult to distinguish which reactors serve which purposes, particularly because India retains the sovereign right to designate facilities as civilian or military. This framework allows India to allot more of its domestically produced uranium resources to shadow military purposes while authorizing Australian-supplied uranium to be used in protected civilian reactors under IAEA safety measures. Thus, a resource-substitution effect could increase the availability of fissile material for covert military purposes. It raises concerns about the global non-proliferation standards because India has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Following the 2008 US-India........

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