THE ongoing conflict in the Middle East has reached a stage where the outcome increasingly hinges on a single 21-mile-wide waterway: the Strait of Hormuz.

Investor Ray Dalio framed the situation starkly in mid-March 2026: “It all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz.” His point is not about the strait’s intrinsic value—though it carries roughly 20–21 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, plus 20% of global LNG—but about what happens if the United States and its allies cannot guarantee unrestricted passage through it. The conflict’s “final battle,” in Dalio’s view, will be fought over effective control of this chokepoint and the outcome will reveal the limits of current US military and diplomatic leverage in a region where Iran holds significant asymmetric advantages.

Since late February 2026, US and Israeli airstrikes have targeted Iranian nuclear, missile and command facilities. Iran has responded with missile barrages, drone swarms and attacks on commercial shipping. By mid-March, more than a dozen tankers had been struck or harassed, war-risk insurance premiums for Gulf transits had risen to levels last seen during the 2019 tanker crisis and daily traffic had fallen noticeably from the normal 100 ........

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