ISRAEL and the US expectations that decapitation of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, through massive airstrikes, would terminate the regime seem driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence. Though President Trump confidently announced that he could finish war quickly, Iran is signalling contrarily. The critical examination of military actions since the launch of the operations Epic Fury and Lion’s Roar against Iran on February 28, 2026, reveals that the off-ramp is not on the horizon. So the asymmetric war is drifting toward escalation and attrition.

The war mongering of President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu discloses three interlinked objectives, i.e., the regime change in Iran, the obliteration of Iran’s nuclear program and the destruction of Iran’s missiles and missile industry. The question arises, will they accomplish their objectives? Iran is going to collapse or survive; anticipating the correct outcome at this stage is difficult. The situation on the ground is alarming for the US and Israel and their partners in the region because the war is not unfolding as either leader planned. The military operations in the Middle East have evolved into a protracted war without an off-ramp. History is full of evidence that protracted war is to the disadvantage of the invaders.

The escalatory ladder of the war alarms about serious economic repercussions for the Middle East, in particular, and the world in general. The US and Israel have failed in establishing escalation dominance till the writing of these lines. Iran’s sustained retaliation and systematic drone and missile strikes against the US military assets in the region, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in the Gulf States have astonished the proponents of war. It has exposed the limitations of the military might of the US and Israel and their strategic air power’s incapability to change the regime and terminate the political system in Iran.

Iran seems to have successfully transformed asymmetric conflict into a protracted war, with catastrophic economic repercussions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has serious energy implications for countries in Europe, South Asia and East Asia, especially South Korea and Japan. Many analysts, including American scholars, opined that the US/Israel and Iran war has propelled the world trade towards recession or economic depression. Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago pointed out, “You could have a worldwide depression. You could have something less than that, like a worldwide recession, that would have huge consequences for people all over the planet, especially in developing countries, less so in developed countries. But even in developed countries, it’s quite clear that the importance of oil for running the international economy simply can’t be underestimated.”

Before the start of the current ongoing war, it was obvious that nuclear diplomacy was achieving its objectives to roll back Iran’s nuclear program. On February 26, 2026, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi described the talks between Iran and the US in Geneva as showing “significant progress” and both sides agreed to resume technical-level discussions in Vienna in the following week. However, the prevailing situation could strengthen the nuclear optimists’ lobby in Iran, who are convinced that a nuclear deterrent only guarantees their country’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and security. Therefore, there are ample chances that Iran will exit the NPT and conduct a nuclear test.

President Trump and his cohorts have been striving to build a victory narrative. He has been saying that we will determine when it ends and the conditions the Iranians must accept. Conversely, the Iranian ruling elite is expressing confidence about the success of their operation ‘True Promise-4’. They are firing ballistic missiles and drones at US troop deployments around the Gulf, targeting Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Targeting American radars in the Gulf and northern Israel and spoiling their advanced defensive shield comprising the THAAD, Patriots, Arrows, David’s Sling and Iron Dome, worth billions of dollars. Stewarding the Strait of Hormuz despite the deployments of the US and French aircraft in the vicinity and President Trump’s repeated calls to countries including France, the United Kingdom, China, Japan and South Korea to help secure or keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Hezbollah is also engaging Israel from Lebanon. Russia and China are expressing their solidarity with Iran at the United Nations Security Council and, according to media reports, sharing intelligence as well.

While successfully puncturing perceptions of the US Gulf partners’ invulnerability, and raising the political, military and economic cost for Gulf countries of hosting US forces, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian laid out three key conditions to off–ramp ongoing protracted war “recognising Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations and firm international guarantees against future aggression,” on March 12, 2026. Apparently, accepting these conditions, even partially, will be political suicide for Trump and Nathenyahu.

The objective analysis of the ongoing protracted war in the Persian/Arabian Gulf necessitates a reality check so that the US and Israel revisit their military strategy and chalk out a realistic political and diplomatic policy for an off-ramp of the escalating protracted war. For the time being, the Iranians have demonstrated resiliency and the potential to sustain a protracted war of attrition rather than opting for an off-ramp.

—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.

© Pakistan Observer