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What is going to happen in Iran?

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15.01.2026

THE question is one, yet the answers are many—shaped by desires and the pain of old wounds.

In this unfolding situation, the cunning of external forces is visible, but internal mistakes cannot be ignored. Behind every development, restless undercurrents persist. Human temperaments generally fall into two types. One remains captive to history, while the other, despite historical awareness, seeks to view events on a broader canvas. In Iran’s case, this canvas reveals a system born as a reaction to a Westernised, authoritarian Shah. The structure of this system was complex. Since religious scholars held power, Iranian society experienced rigid—often inflexible—application of Sharia and jurisprudence. This rigidity forms the internal dimension of Iran’s predicament and influenced its regional conduct.

The psychology of revolutions is complex. A revolution draws energy from ideology and arises through sacrifices. Leaders and supporters often wish to extend its influence beyond borders so their success radiates outward. Alongside concern for neighbours, this impulse is driven by ideological propagation and old rivalries. After the Iranian Revolution, these dynamics became evident, causing regional conflicts and a........

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