Hardly noticed amidst the static of geopolitical tensions and armed conflict, the 190 states parties to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), the world’s primary agreement aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons while advancing disarmament, met at United Nations HQ in New York from April 27-May 22, 2026. Despite the best efforts of attending diplomats and the skilled management of the proceedings by conference President Ambassador Do Hung Viet of Vietnam, the conference failed to produce an agreed outcome document. The fourth and last version of a draft outcome was such that President Viet decided that it could not be the basis for a consensus agreement, and he did not put it forward for adoption.  

Coming after similar failures to agree at the 2015 and 2022 Review Conferences, this third negative result raises the spectre of a treaty being drained of its authority. This situation is fraught with risks as the NPT is the embodiment of a global nuclear governance regime that provided for nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the promotion of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Not since the entry into force of the NPT in 1970 has the treaty been under greater stress and the effectiveness of its key norms more in doubt. After decades of being referred to as the “cornerstone” of international security, the dismal result of the conference led its President to warn that even cornerstones can “succumb to erosion” and the edifices they support can collapse. In fact, the nuclear restraint regime centered on the NPT has been fraying for years – will this further failure lead it to completely unravel? After years of relative stability (with the notable exception of North Korea’s defection from the NPT in 2003) the treaty’s underlying bargain of progress on nuclear disarmament in return for holding the line against nuclear proliferation is being challenged. This uncertainty could prompt major changes in the strategic outlook of states from the Middle East to Asia and in Europe itself. 

Consensus in Name Only

The bane of the NPT review conferences in recent decades has been the effort to come to common positions regarding regional problems that remain divisive amongst state parties. The proximate reason for the failure to produce an agreed outcome at the last three review conferences has been disputes on regional issues – over Israel and Middle East nuclear free zones in 2015; on the Ukraine-Russian war and the........

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