In the wake of the 2025 attack on the Iranian nuclear program, the former director of the Middle East Institute (MEI), John Calabrase, warned that geopolitical, regional, and economic factors “render the Gulf states exceptionally vulnerable to any escalation between Israel and Iran.” Despite its limited goals, Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. stealth bomber raids on Iran’s nuclear sites, led to disruptions in Gulf shipping, reprisals by Iran, and a spike in global oil prices.  

The Gulf states are now yoked to a global conflict whose military, economic, and political repercussions are being felt across the region and world. Despite being in the cross-hairs of this conflict, they possess limited leverage. Their security and economic systems remain deeply intertwined with a complex constellation of major external powers—including the United States, Israel, China, and Russia—whose strategic priorities override regional interests. At the same time, persistent intra-Gulf divisions, divergent threat perceptions, especially in regard to Iran, and competing national interests undermine the possibility of coordinated regional action.

In the current environment, middle powers outside of the Middle East also appear largely sidelined, with few mechanisms or platforms through which they can meaningfully influence the trajectory of the crisis or support Gulf states in shaping non-military pathways forward. 

The Return of Middle-Power Diplomacy

In his Davos speech, Carney warned of a harsher geopolitical order taking shape: “the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.” However, Carney also underscored how hegemonic powers depend on the compliance of allies and partners.

Carney himself may have slipped back into such dutiful rituals of compliance when his initial response to the U.S.-Israel military assault was to signal his “support with regret.” If there were a crisis that requires charting courageous new pathways forward for middle powers, it would be the current conflict and its global destructive impact. Curiously, while the key players and coalitions are very different, the current conflict does bear a few uncanny resemblances to an earlier Middle East crisis.  

The Forgotten Lesson of Suez

Seventy years ago (1956), with economic and military support from the Soviet Union, Egypt was positioned as a rising power in the Middle East and Israel’s major military threat.  Its decision to nationalize, control, and impose tolls on the world’s major oil shipping route through the Suez Canal sparked a geopolitical crisis. Western........

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