The road to the 2026 elections

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland comprises England, Scotland, Wales (these three being Great Britain), and Northern Ireland – the part that remained in the United Kingdom when the island of Ireland was partitioned in 1921. These four regions are referred to in the United Kingdom as ‘constituent countries’, though they lack the sovereignty associated with the common usage of ‘country’. Northern Ireland is the most distinct region constitutionally, with a parliament from 1921.

In contrast, the three regions of Great Britain lacked any elected regional governments until 1999.  The New Labour government of Tony Blair elected in 1997 pledged to create elected regional parliaments in Scotland and Wales with devolved powers, constitutional changes confirmed by their regional populations in referenda later that year (though only narrowly in Wales). There is no regional parliament in England, and the UK House of Commons legislates for England-specific matters.  Attempts to extend devolution to the various parts of England began in the North East, but this was rejected overwhelmingly by the voters there in a 2004 referendum.

The United Kingdom is not a federal system like Canada, where regional governments exist throughout the country, sovereignty is shared, and powers are delineated constitutionally. Rather it is a system of devolution, where minority regions have their own governments, but whose powers are devolved (transferred) from the centre rather than being delineated constitutionally. Indeed, the United Kingdom does not even have a single written constitution. UK devolution as has existed since 1999 is thus both narrower in geographic scope and not entrenched as compared to federalism (for a schematic contrast of these multilevel political organizations, see Figure 6.3 here). Quite exceptionally, the United Kingdom government did agree to a referendum on Scottish independence which was held in 2014, with the question reviewed by the independent UK Electoral Commission. ‘No’ won this referendum with 55.3 percent to 44.7 percent for ‘Yes’.

Elections to the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd (Parliament) took place on 07 May 2026.  In both regions the outcome was a hung parliament, but with the main regional nationalist party each winning some 45 percent of the seats.  Specifically, in Scotland the incumbent Scottish National Party (SNP) won 58 of the 129 seats, with all the other parties clustered well back:  Scottish Labour and Reform UK Scotland each won 17 seats, the Scottish Greens (also pro-independence) won a record high 15 seats, the Scottish Conservatives only 12 seats, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats 10 seats. This was the fifth straight victory for the SNP.  In contrast, in Wales the result reflected a new two-party dominance:  Plaid Cymru (“Party of Wales”) won 43 of now 96 seats (up from 60) and Reform UK Wales won 34 seats, with Welsh Labour down to nine seats, the Welsh Conservatives seven seats, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats one seat. The Welsh Greens (also pro-independence) entered the Senedd for the first time with two seats.

For both Labour and the Conservatives, these were the lowest seat totals ever in each of these devolved parliaments.  Scottish Labour clearly failed to establish itself as an alternative government (it had led the Scottish government........

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