In the Edmonton Oilers’ final season before Connor McDavid turns 30 years old, they were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by the Anaheim Ducks. In general, it was a mediocre season for the team all year long. As McDavid put it, they were an “average team with high expectations.” 

Plenty of blame has been directed across the organization, from the star players to management to ownership. But in this piece, I would like to specifically focus on the coaching staff. 

Without any further ado, here is a deep dive into Edmonton’s coaching and why I strongly believe it is best for the team to make a change.

*All stats via Natural Stat Trick and EvolvingHockey, unless stated otherwise

First, a deeper look into the all-around results under Knoblauch

Let’s begin with a deeper dive into Edmonton’s regular-season results. Firstly, there is no doubt that the Oilers saw a massive improvement upon head coach Kris Knoblauch’s initial arrival. In the first thirteen games of the 2023-24 regular-season under then-HC Jay Woodcroft, the Oilers had an atrocious 3-9-1 start (0.269 PTS%), the absolute worst start in franchise history. Under Knoblauch, the Oilers recovered to an outstanding record of 46-18-5 (0.703 PTS%).

However, I believe it would be an oversimplification to reduce this to a neat-and-tidy narrative of “Woodcroft bad, Knoblauch good.” Two important details must be noted here. 

First, much of the Oilers’ horrendous start in 2023-24 simply came down to injuries and plain old bad puck luck. Mattias Ekholm was injured to start that season and Connor McDavid played through an injury as well. Overall, the team also held an unsustainably low shooting percentage of six per cent and save percentage of 88.9 per cent. Considering that the team significantly controlled the play (54 per cent of the shots, 57 per cent of the scoring chances), regression to the mean was inevitable at some point. 

Now, that’s not to imply that Knoblauch had no effect. There were indeed significant areas the new coaching staff had (initially) changed for the better – notably rush defending and the penalty-kill – and I was personally satisfied with most of Knoblauch’s decision-making in his first season here. But, the point is that the Oilers’ poor start would simply have never been sustained. No team has ever had a combined shooting and save percentage (a.k.a. PDO) that low over a full season. This is important to note in order to assess Knoblauch’s true impact.

Second, while the Oilers nevertheless improved under Knoblauch in his first season no matter how you look at it, many red flags began to appear during his two full seasons with the team. Take a look below at a timeline of Edmonton’s goal share at five-on-five during the McDavid and Draisaitl era:

Following Peter Chiarelli’s firing, you can see that the Oilers gradually but steadily improved their five-on-five goal differential every season ever since, from 2019-20 to 2023-24. But, that trend took a steep drop-off in 2024-25 and 2025-26, i.e. Kris Knoblauch’s two and only full seasons with the team.

In fact, not only did the Oilers decline, but they fell into a net negative at five-on-five. In 2024-25, the Oilers were outscored 168 to 171 at five-on-five. In 2025-26, that worsened to a differential of 174 to 188. For a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to be outscored at five-on-five in two consecutive seasons is flat-out unacceptable. There’s just no other way to put it.

We can see an even more revealing trend with Edmonton’s expected goal share, which (essentially) is a measure of how well Edmonton controlled the quantity and quality of the scoring chances on-ice:

At their peak, the Oilers were possession juggernauts. They consistently controlled play, ranking near or even at the very top of the league in shot, expected goal, and high-danger chance differential at five-on-five. But, that peak generally came under Woodcroft. We can see a very clear decline in Edmonton’s play-driving since Knoblauch’s arrival. In the entirety of the analytics era, there has been no player more prolific at generating scoring chances than Connor McDavid, and so again, these results are just not satisfactory keeping in mind the level of talent on this roster, especially considering how strongly they previously were in this facet.

This has clearly reflected in the standings as well. Edmonton had 93 points in the 2025-26 regular-season, their lowest total over the past six years. They were fortunate to have played in an exceedingly weak Pacific Division.

Now, with all that in mind, there are numerous obvious retorts one may have to what I have presented so far. The most evident one is post-season success.

The biggest case for keeping Knoblauch is the very simple fact that the Oilers reached two consecutive Stanley Cup Finals with him behind the bench. In all fairness, it is a very, very compelling case. 

The other major counter‑argument is the question of attribution. How much of these results truly fall on the coaching staff? What about management? After all, there has been considerable roster turnover. What about fatigue........

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