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Digging into why Edmonton’s offence has been underwhelming at even strength

3 6
18.11.2025
At the 20-game mark of the 2025-26 NHL season, the Edmonton Oilers have a record of 9-7-4. Overall, it is well below the expectations for this team.

On the one hand, underwhelming starts are far from a new phenomenon for Edmonton. After all, they had a horrific record of 2-9-1 to start 2023-24, just two seasons ago. Their 9-8-2 record to begin the 2024-25 season wasn’t exactly outstanding either.

However, there are some red flags in the team’s current game — which were not present in prior seasons — that raise some concerns moving forward. Most notably, their offence at 5-on-5 has been significantly below par.

Overall, Edmonton ranks just 27th in the NHL in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes of play, averaging a rate of just 2.13. That is extremely disappointing for a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on it. Just to put that into perspective, the last time the Oilers scored at a rate below 2.15 goals per hour was in the 2015-16 season, i.e. McDavid’s rookie season, where league scoring was significantly lower.

Now, one may note that the Oilers ranked 22nd in 5-on-5 goals per hour in the first 20 games of the 2023-24 season, and they wound up finishing the season in third place. Perhaps a bounce-back such as that is bound to occur again.

However, it must be noted that, even during Edmonton’s abysmal start that season, they still ranked first in the NHL in expected goals per hour. Their offensive struggles to begin the 2023-24 NHL season were largely due to simple poor puck luck, as they were scoring nearly a full goal below expected per 60 minutes. Predictably, it regressed.

That has not been the case thus far this season. In terms of expected goals, the Oilers still rank just 26th in expected goals generated per hour. They aren’t scoring many goals, but unlike 2023-24, they aren’t generating enough chances either.

This is a big reason why the Oilers have significantly struggled to close out games in regulation. They have just four regulation wins in the first 20 games thus far, a tie with six other teams for the fewest regulation wins in the NHL. While they can win at 3-on-3, success at 5-on-5........

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