Earlier this summer, the NHL and Dan Friedkin agreed to a six-month window to explore bringing a team to Houston.

Recent news suggests a deal is far from finalized, but the 2029-30 season has been floated as a potential target for a new Texas franchise. Houston Mayor John Whitmire said earlier this month the city was “ready,” already conversing with multiple interested parties. There is still plenty to be determined, including what an eventual expansion draft would look like, though the NHL used the same format for the Vegas expansion in 2017 and the Seattle expansion in 2021.

Under those rules, teams could protect either seven forwards, three defencemen, and one goaltender, or eight skaters and one goaltender. Players with an active no-movement clause were required to be protected unless they agreed to waive it, but first- and second-year professionals were exempt from being selected.

A lot can change between now and 2029, but using that format and Edmonton’s current contracts and young players, we can get an early look at who the Edmonton Oilers would protect, and which players they could risk losing. And, for the sake of this scenario and the sanity of Oilers fans everywhere, we’ll assume Connor McDavid re-signs in Edmonton after his current contract expires.

How could the Edmonton Oilers structure their forward protection list?

The Oilers would likely go with the 7-3-1 format, but from here, this scenario gets hypothetical fast. Leon Draisaitl, Trent Frederic, and Jason Dickinson are the only Oilers forwards currently under contract for the 2029-30 season, meaning nearly every other candidate would first have to re-sign with Edmonton. Rather than trying to predict every contract decision between now and then, we’ll assume the players currently in the organization stick around.

Under this scenario, Connor McDavid, Vasily Podkolzin, and Matt Savoie join Draisaitl as the team’s most obvious protection choices. From there, things get much tougher. The development of Edmonton’s young forwards over the next three seasons could ultimately determine how the final three spots are used. If Isaac Howard establishes himself as........

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