Shiva Shekhar, a 40-year-old farmer from Padavalapatna village in Mandya district's Nagamangala taluk, could not sow ragi this kharif. “I kept waiting for the rain but it never came, so I sowed cowpea instead, which is more drought-tolerant,” he said on September 16.

Karnataka is the largest ragi-producing state in the country. In 2025-26, India produced 2 million tonnes of ragi, of which 1.47 million tonnes came from Karnataka, according to the Third Advance Estimates for the year from the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. The state also accounted for about 73% of the area under ragi that year, at 979,000 hectares. Of that, Mandya—located about 40 km north of Mysuru—accounted for about 53,300 hectares.

Broadly, ragi sowing at the national and state levels has kept pace with last year. But in Mandya, against a target of 63,385 hectare for this year, ragi was sown in 1,213 hectare (1.91%) by September 11, data shared by Jayaswamy, joint director of agriculture for Mandya, show.

By September 11, Karnataka had an overall decline of 1.5 million hectares in kharif sowing area compared to last year. Of this, roughly a third each was in paddy, and the broad category of millets and coarse cereals.

“The seasonal decline in Kharif millet acreage during low-rainfall years reflects practical, farm level adaptation rather than a loss of confidence in the crop,” said C. Tara Satyavathi, director of ICAR’s Indian Institute Of Millet Research.

“When monsoon showers are delayed or substantially deficient, topsoil moisture drops below the threshold required for seed emergence,” explained Satyavathi. “If the mid-August window passes, sowing full-duration varieties can expose the crop to terminal moisture stress later in October-November.”

For Shekhar, shifting to cowpea did not help either. “Due to the lack of rainfall and soil moisture, this crop [cowpea] is also drying up. There seems to be no chance of yield,” he said.

“July had an 83% rainfall deficit and August a 70% deficit. In the last two months, we have hardly had even one rainy day in the district,” said Jayaswamy.

On August 27, the state government had declared drought in 101 taluks, with assessments continuing in other areas. All seven taluks in Mandya were in the list. The district had also submitted a proposal covering around 48,000 hectares of crop loss, Jayaswamy said.

As of September 16, Mandya received 130 mm of rainfall, 45% less than normal, data from the India Meteorological Department show. The state, as a whole, had a 30% deficit. Only four districts recorded normal rainfall. This week, Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar said more than 200 of the state’s 239 taluks were facing drought conditions.

In May 2026, ISignal had explained the concerns about this year experiencing a ‘super El Niño’ event beginning in the second half and stretching on to early next year. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the global ocean atmospheric phenomenon El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a powerful atmospheric-ocean phenomenon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes the phenomenon as follows: “During normal conditions in the........

© newslaundry