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Opinion | Steady Nerves, Strong Economy: Decoding The India-US Trade Deal

16 7
04.02.2026

The announcement on February 2, 2026, of a trade agreement between India and the United States marks a significant milestone in bilateral relations. After months of unending speculation triggered by US reciprocal tariffs, the deal reduces the tariff rate on Indian goods from 50 per cent to 18 per cent, effective immediately, while securing commitments for enhanced Indian purchases of American energy and technology.

This outcome is not merely a diplomatic win; it underscores two interrelated strengths: the robust resilience of the Indian economy, which weathered nearly six months of elevated tariffs with minimal disruption, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s steady, principled leadership that prioritised national interest over short-term political theatrics.

The Resilience of the Indian Economy

When the United States imposed a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian exports in mid-2025 (later added 25 per cent more on charges of buying Russian oil), with threats escalating as far back as April, many feared a severe blow to India’s export-driven sectors. The US is India’s largest single-country trading partner, accounting for roughly 18 per cent of India’s merchandise exports. Yet the Indian economy absorbed the shock with remarkable buoyancy, maintaining strong growth projections and even recording export gains in key periods.

Data tells the story clearly. Despite the tariffs being in place for six months, India’s overall merchandise exports remained stable and, in several months, registered growth. For instance, exports to the US jumped more........

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