Opinion | Fury In The Gulf: Why Is China Missing In Action?

If Iran were to become a US client state, as Donald Trump hopes, China would suddenly find itself vulnerable in a region where it hopes to exercise strategic primacy

About 14% of China’s oil imports come from Iran. Nearly 45% of China’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is currently choked. The war that the United States and Israel have brought to Iran therefore threatens one of China’s main life-giving energy arteries.

While Iran is undoubtedly an important energy partner for China, it is also an important buffer state. Iran sits in a sensitive geography that curtails Western influence from making inroads into China’s adjacencies, especially the Central Asian republics that Beijing has drawn into the orbit of the Belt and Road Initiative.

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If Iran were to become a US client state, as Donald Trump hopes, China would suddenly find itself vulnerable in a region where it hopes to exercise strategic primacy.

So why has China done so little to help Iran? Why is it missing in action, to borrow a military term? Is Beijing playing the waiting game, or in more academic language, exhibiting strategic patience?

Here are six possible reasons.

Energy Stability First: China depends heavily on Gulf oil. A wider war involving Iran could threaten tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, something Beijing wants to avoid.

Strategic Patience: Let the United States expend money, weapons and political capital in another Middle Eastern conflict, much like during the Iraq War.

Avoid Alliance Entrapment: China prefers partnerships over military alliances. Directly defending Iran would create expectations and obligations Beijing would rather avoid.

Economic Fragility: China’s leadership is managing slowing growth and financial stress. A confrontation with Washington could trigger sanctions, market instability and trade disruption.

Benefit from Iranian Dependence: An isolated Iran becomes more reliant on Chinese oil purchases, finance and infrastructure tied to the Belt and Road Initiative.

A Distracted America Helps China: If the United States is absorbed in the Gulf, it has less strategic focus on China’s core theatres, especially Taiwan and the South China Sea.

For these reasons, China may have a greater incentive to watch America and its regional ally, Israel, become embroiled in a costly war that may not even deliver Iran or its energy resources into their strategic orbit.

© News18