The Incredible Shrinking MAGA

How far can MAGA continue to get if it keeps purging itself down to its ever-more-molten core? Donald Trump appears bent on finding out.

If you follow politics on social media, you’ve probably encountered a claim about Donald Trump that goes like this: “LOL Trump’s support is rock-solid LOL, his base will never leave him LOL.” And it’s true: The white-hot core of MAGA does remain with him. But we should ask ourselves a different question: What’s happening with the coalition that elected Trump in 2024? How much of that constellation of constituencies is still with him?

On those questions, the latest Fox News poll is nothing short of astonishing. On both his general approval ratings and many major issues, his numbers among voter groups that have reliably supported him in the past are awful. They’re also terrible among the non-Trumpy groups that he pulled into the coalition in 2024. And so, even if Trump can rely on his MAGA core, so what? Republicans can’t stave off major damage in the midterms with MAGA alone.

Let’s look at the numbers, broken down by Trump-friendly groups, as found in the Fox poll’s internals:

Non-college white voters. Trump’s overall approval among them is now slightly underwater, at 49–51. His approval on the economy among them is an abysmal 38–62. On immigration, he’s barely above water, at 53–47, with nearly half this constituency disapproving. And on his handling of Iran, he’s at 43–57.

Rural voters. His overall approval among them is 51–49. He’s barely above water with this intensely pro-Trump constituency. On the economy, it’s 42–58. On immigration, it’s 52–48, again barely above water. On Iran, he’s underwater at 48–51.

White men. His overall approval is a clean 50–50, meaning half that extremely Trump-friendly demographic disapproves. On the economy, he’s deeply........

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