The Mecca Defence Pact: A New Security Architecture or a Coalition Without an Enemy?

The Mecca defence pact brings Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan together at a moment when confidence in the U.S.-led regional security architecture has eroded. The regional analysts I have consulted identify no clear enemy that the pact is targeting. Its real significance may therefore lie in whether regional deterrence can evolve into a credible new security architecture and withstand its first serious test.

The agreement draws the attention of analysts I have discussed with because its strategic significance remains unsettled. It unites three countries with distinct military capabilities, geographic priorities, and relationships with Washington. While the principle is clear—an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all—the practical implications remain uncertain.

A regional security order in the making

Ambassador Professor Mohamed A. Qubaty, a former Yemeni minister and ambassador, sees the agreement as “the beginning of an indigenous regional security architecture.” He shifts the focus from identifying an enemy to a broader transformation: regional powers seeking to shape their own security strategies instead of relying on external guarantors.

Yemeni strategic adviser Mohammed Salem Mujawar offers a similar view. He notes that Israel, Iran, and the Houthis are all part of the strategic environment, but none should be singled out as the sole target. The key development, he suggests, is the desire of Riyadh, Ankara, and Islamabad to strengthen their ability to shape regional security.

Kristian Alexander, a regional security specialist based in Dubai,........

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