The Geopolitics Behind the Mecca Defence Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan and the struggle to shape the new Middle East

The agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan responds not only to military threats but also reflects the ambitions, concerns, and rivalries of both signatories and non-signatories. Beneath its formal collective defence language, the pact signals a broader geopolitical contest to shape the Middle East as the US-centered security system declines.

“Muslim NATO” — or strategic hedging?

Several experts consulted consider the “Islamic NATO” label premature. Dr. Kristian Alexander, a regional security specialist in Dubai, views the agreement as a formalisation of existing bilateral security relationships into a coherent regional deterrence framework, rather than the creation of a “Muslim NATO.” Seyed Mojtaba Jalalzadeh, an Iranian independent researcher and political analyst, also describes the pact as neither a fully developed Islamic NATO nor a symbolic gesture, noting that the specific military commitments of the three members remain undisclosed.

A competing interpretation exists. Muhammad Abdullah Ijaz, a Pakistani political analyst specialising in European foreign policy, transatlantic relations and Iran’s foreign policy, sees the pact as a possible step toward a “Muslim NATO,” citing its collective-defence principle’s similarity to NATO’s Article 5. However, Ijaz emphasizes that the agreement is defensive, the Pakistani nuclear umbrella was not explicitly included, and it should not be viewed as a sectarian Sunni alliance against Iran.

The sectarian dimension remains relevant. Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan are Sunni-majority states, while Iran is the region’s principal Shi’a power. Jalalzadeh notes that the pact unites “major Sunni-majority regional powers,” but emphasizes strategic hedging rather than sectarian competition. This approach allows the three countries to build autonomous deterrence while maintaining their relationships with Washington.

This distinction is significant. The pact can strengthen deterrence against Iran without forming an explicitly anti-Shi’a bloc, and it can increase pressure on Israel without becoming an overtly anti-Israeli alliance. Mohammad Khatibi, an Iranian foreign-policy analyst and broadcast journalist, considers Israel an underestimated factor in the pact’s strategy, describes Iran as an indirect concern, and identifies the Houthis as a practical issue, especially for Saudi Arabia and Red Sea security. Ali Mohebi, an Iranian political analyst........

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