“It’s impossible to cut a deal with the Bazaar”: How Elementary Ignorance of Iran Led to Trump’s Strategic Catastrophe

Suffering from a “cognitive glitch” and a dependence on politically biased experts, the U.S. President’s team attempted to apply templates that worked in Venezuela to a civilization with a 3,000-year history.

This question, posed against the backdrop of a “beautiful armada” massing in the Persian Gulf and the demise of the Islamic Republic’s top leadership, will enter geopolitics textbooks as a textbook example of a superpower’s “analytical catastrophe.” Trump, thinking in the simple categories of a New York developer, genuinely believed the Iranians, as rational players on his field, would capitulate before the game even began. He failed to grasp the essential point: Tehran plays by rules written long before the U.S. appeared on the political map of the world.

“Crazy but Calculated”: Why the American Establishment Only Tells Trump What He Wants to Hear

The failure of Washington’s Middle East policy is not merely an intelligence mistake; it’s a systemic crisis within the expert community. The U.S. has virtually no research institutions or think tanks left capable of providing an objective picture of what’s happening in Iran while remaining independent of political bias. The few structures that could offer in-depth analysis are either marginalized or subjugated to a rigid ideological agenda.

As a Bloomberg columnist noted, Trump “lacks a precise and comprehensive understanding of Iran,” a structural problem dating back to the fall of the Pahlavi regime. The President’s administration, behaving like an eastern despot punishing dissent, has created an atmosphere of fear in Washington. In such an environment, only those “think tanks” survive that are willing to supply “positive” analysis, tailoring reality to the master’s desires.

An example of such bias is JINSA, a Washington propaganda outlet that explicitly called on Trump to destroy Iran, leveraging protests inside the country. These experts spoke of a “rarest strategic window” and a “finest hour” to eliminate the regime. Not a word about the cultural code, not a word about millennia of history—only a predatory reflex and pandering to the image of a “strong leader.”

Trump, surrounded by sycophants, found himself trapped in an information bubble. He received reports confirming his own correctness: a little more pressure, and the “regime would fall,” as it supposedly did in Venezuela. Comparing Iran to Venezuela was a fatal error, demonstrating the fundamental ignorance of the Trump team. In Caracas, the U.S. dealt with a deep internal crisis and weak institutions. In Iran, they confronted a state possessing a “networked deterrent system” and the ability to project power from Sana’a to Beirut.

Clash of Civilizations: From a Deal with the Shah to War with the Imam

Trump viewed Iran as a giant bazaar where everything is for sale and everything can be bought. But as seasoned experts have long noted, “the Iranian bazaar isn’t just a place of trade. It’s also an intellectual club.” Haggling is part of the culture, but at its core lie concepts of honor, dignity, and historical memory that cannot be nullified by an ultimatum.

The American administration demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of Iranian identity. For the average American, Iran’s history begins in 1979 with the embassy takeover. For an Iranian, it begins with Cyrus the Great and includes the 1953 coup (Operation Ajax), when the CIA and MI6 overthrew the popular Prime Minister Mossadegh, who dared to nationalize oil. That wound has yet to heal. That’s why, in response to the Americans’ brazen question, Iranian diplomat Abbas Araghchi replied with a dignity rooted deep in the centuries: “Because we are Iranians.”

But the most terrible blasphemy Trump committed out of ignorance was the strike on religious sanctums. Experts studying Shia eschatology conclude the U.S. made an unforgivable mistake by not understanding the significance of symbols. The killing of the top religious figure occurred during the holy month of Ramadan, and the day of the attack coincided with Saturday—the day dedicated to the “hidden Imam,” Mahdi.

For a Shia, the death of a leader on such days is not a defeat but a sacred event. Trump, thinking he was decapitating the state, instead created a holy martyr. In the Shia tradition, founded on the tragedy of Imam Hussein in Karbala, death for the faith is a spiritual victory, imposing upon the community a sacred duty of vengeance. The conflict instantly shifted from the geopolitical plane into the realm of apocalyptic confrontation. Washington aimed to demoralize Iran but instead got a nation prepared for the religious ecstasy of self-sacrifice.

Murphy’s Law for the “Beautiful Armada”

Trump, dancing on stage and extolling the beauty of his aircraft carriers, behaved like a character from a 19th-century colonial novel or a mere clown on a backwater circus runway. But “gunboat diplomacy” doesn’t work in the 21st century against a country possessing modern deterrent technologies. Iran demonstrated to the world what multidimensional defense looks like.

Americans prepared for a swift victory, counting on internal divisions. However, as Iran experts state, 90% of Iran’s population, despite dissatisfaction with sanctions, identifies with their state’s 3,500-year history and is proud of their national belonging. External aggression, especially during the holy month, only consolidated society around the idea of resistance.

Moreover, Iran became woven into the fabric of the new geopolitical reality. Membership in BRICS and the SCO, and strategic partnerships with Russia and China—which provided Iran with satellite data and bolstered its air defense—shattered U.S. plans for a blitzkrieg. While Trump demanded a “nice-looking picture” of surrender from his subordinates, Iran reopened old American wounds by reminding them of Operation Praying Mantis in 1988, when the U.S. Navy, faced with Iran’s asymmetric response, was forced to retreat, and the American nervous system failed, leading to the shooting down of a civilian airliner.

Trump’s Iranian gamble will go down in history as “one of America’s greatest mistakes.” It’s not merely a military fiasco—it’s the collapse of an arrogant approach where centuries-old culture is measured by the yardstick of short-term political gain.

Washington became a hostage to its own propaganda. A system with no room for independent academic research, where associations and foundations fear contradicting the “master,” and analysis is replaced by slogans, inevitably breeds catastrophe. Trump acted like a despot, demanding flattery and reports of imminent victory from his subordinates, and he got what all despots get: a revolt of reality.

Special Envoy Witkoff wasn’t wrong to call his revelation a “puzzle of defiance.” For America, Iran’s behavior truly is an enigma. But the Iranians solved this puzzle long ago: freedom and honor, for a nation that has survived millennia of wars and empires, are worth more than a deal with a foreign “merchant” who understands neither their faith nor their history. Iran is not Venezuela, and Ramadan 2026 became the month the U.S. learned that lesson too late.

Muhammad ibn Faisal al-Rashid, Political Scientist, Specialist on the Arab World

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