The Impact of the Middle East Crisis on US–South Korea Military Cooperation: Warning Signs

We have previously analysed the reaction and the challenges that the states of the Korean Peninsula have been facing in the context of the crisis in the Greater Middle East. However, this situation is also taking its toll on cooperation between Washington and Seoul, which appears to be running into serious difficulties.

The Redeployment of US Missile Defence Systems from the Korean Peninsula to the Middle East: Is Seoul in the Dark?

Aircraft tracking data reportedly indicates that several C-5 Galaxy and C-17 Globemaster III strategic transport aircraft recently arrived at and departed from Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province.

The situation surrounding the THAAD system is particularly concerning. Deployed ten years ago, it triggered a serious crisis in relations between Beijing and Seoul, as China rightly believed that the system was aimed not only at North Korea. In this regard, according to Chinese media, South Korea is now questioning whether its sacrifice for the US – which led to the breakdown of its relationship with China – was justified, especially given that when the US shifts its focus, it is often unwilling to uphold its long-term commitments.

The US Department of Defence has not confirmed the specific details of the redeployment, confining itself to a general statement about the regular rotation of US troops and equipment. However, on 10 March 2026, the President of the Republic of Korea, Lee Jae Myung, issued a statement saying that the possible relocation of US military assets stationed in South Korea would not affect the level of deterrence against North Korea. Ironically, one might argue that, given that a North Korean hypersonic missile can cover the distance from Pyongyang to Seoul in just one minute, and given South Korea’s lack of appropriate air defence systems, this statement sounds somewhat unconvincing.

Such a redeployment of missiles, according to the author’s outlook, points at two important considerations. First, the pragmatists in the Trump administration are probably aware that the likelihood of the situation when North Korea carries out an attack, requiring the actual use of American missiles, is in fact close to zero. Kim Jong-un is not a character from a Hollywood action film, and the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Russia provides for consultations in critical situations. This means that any drastic moves by Pyongyang would require coordination........

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