UAE’s OPEC Exit Is No Cartel Killer—It’s a Calculated Power Shift

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC has sparked intense debate about the future of the global oil market and the stability of collective production management.

Reports of the UAE leaving OPEC are often portrayed as the beginning of the end for the group, but this angle exaggerates the immediate impact and overlooks the deeper strategic shift at play.

Some, as the BBC and others describe, would say this is like a death blow to OPEC: The United Arab Emirates’ plan to ditch the oil producers’ group OPEC and strike out alone is being viewed as hugely damaging for the organisation, with one analyst describing it as “the beginning of the end of OPEC”.

I see it differently: the UAE wants to produce more oil than OPEC quotas allow and profit from higher output. The assumption is that more countries may do the same, potentially lowering prices unless shipping logistics—mainly Iranian control—limit exports.

And some, like Iraq and Kuwait, have already shut down some, or even most, of their wells as far as I know. Therefore, it’s hard to know the impact, if any, that increased production will have. The UAE seems to be in bed with Israel now, so that may somehow be a factor too. I think the UAE and Saudi Arabia also want Trump to resume bombing to knock out Iran. If the US proceeds with that, it may backfire on them all!

Slow-burning structural shift

Recent reporting on OPEC has framed the UAE’s exit as less of an immediate market shock and more as a slow-burning structural shift; however, that may be intentionally misleading. One thing is most certain: oil prices are controlled by geopolitical disruptions—especially around the Strait of Hormuz.

With exports constrained and some producers already struggling to move supply, the UAE’s decision to leave quota limits has little immediate........

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