Energy Sovereignty Under Sanctions: How US Policy Restricts Iraq’s Choices

How Iraq’s energy sovereignty can be measured and achieved? How do the geography and sanctions matter? What is the U.S.’ impact in this area? And who determines Iraq’s energy choices?

This creates a contradiction at the heart of Washington’s approach. The United States supports Iraqi energy independence while restricting some of the transactions Baghdad considers necessary to achieve it. When existing supplies become harder to secure before alternatives are operational, the immediate burden falls on Iraq’s consumers and economy.

Who Determines Iraq’s Energy Choices?

The Trump administration’s February 2025 sanctions memorandum called for reviewing or rescinding waivers providing Iran with economic relief, explicitly including those related to Iraqi energy imports. This established the political context. For Baghdad, however, the practical issue was whether replacement supplies could meet its electricity requirements.

In March 2025, Washington declined to renew the waiver permitting payments for direct electricity imports from Iran. This decision must be distinguished from restrictions on gas: an adviser to Iraq’s prime minister stated that the gas waiver remained in effect at that time. Electricity imported across the border and electricity generated inside Iraq using imported gas are separate supply channels.

The proposed Turkmen gas arrangement illustrates the constraints on Iraq’s options. In September 2025, US objections stalled a plan to supply Iraq with approximately five billion cubic metres of Turkmen gas annually through a swap involving Iran. Although Baghdad proposed third-party monitoring, the gas benefit Iran would receive under the swap arrangement remained........

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