The Mecca Pact Turned Up Short: Escalation in Yemen

Having provoked a new round of conflict with the Yemeni Houthis, Saudi Arabia has landed itself in a dire situation. Despite the seriousness of the situation, the US and its allies in the “Islamic NATO” have so far taken up the role of outside observers.

Essence of the Conflict

Geopolitical Risks: Houthi Blitzkrieg

The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounts for 10–16% of global oil traffic. If the Strait of Hormuz (30% of global tanker transit) is blocked, Iran, together with the Houthis, gains control over supplies of nearly 50% of the oil reaching world markets. Tehran could use this leverage as its main trump card in negotiations with Washington.

Over a short period in September, the Houthis established control over the deep-water port of Mokha and the strategically important islands of Mayyun (Perim), Zuqar, and Hanish. These positions allow them to fully control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Simultaneously, the Houthis surrounded the Khalid military base, capturing a significant amount of armored vehicles and taking three brigades of the Saudi army prisoner.

Running in parallel with the offensive in the south, strikes were also delivered in the north. The Houthis attacked the East–West oil pipeline, through which up to 70% of Riyadh’s oil exports flow to the port of Yanbu.

In just a few days, the Houthis radically changed the balance of power on the Red Sea coast, effectively cutting........

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