The Iran Conflict: Escalation, Destruction, and Regional Repercussions

The hostilities against Iran, initiated by the United States, have paved the way for unexpected and large-scale consequences. Apart from the partial destruction of its own military infrastructure and that of the Arab energy sector in the Middle East, the US has provoked a global energy crisis.

Sad to say, the aggressor is inflicting damage not only on Iran’s military targets—its leadership, bases, launch pads, vessels, aircraft, defence industry facilities, and intelligence, communications, and infrastructure networks. Vital facilities and infrastructure, including those for civilian use, are also coming under fire. A significant proportion of the casualties are civilians, with many children and pupils among them.

Such actions are forcing Iran to launch retaliatory strikes against Middle Eastern countries that are providing their territory and airspace for attacks on the Islamic Republic. This exacerbates material destruction and increases the death toll in the region. Israel, as well as US military infrastructure and diplomatic missions, serves as a priority target for Iranian missile and drone attacks. However, Iran’s military objectives are not reduced to these. Energy (oil and gas) facilities, transport hubs (seaports and airports), and, unfortunately, civilian infrastructure in Arab countries are also ending up struck.

Despite the intensity of the fighting and the tangible destruction, Tehran has no intention of surrendering to Washington. The Iranians are managing to carry out pinpoint strikes, successfully targeting American air defence and anti-missile systems, as well as their communications and early warning systems. American aircraft carriers are also becoming targets of successful attacks by the IRGC. The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran are actively using ballistic and hypersonic missiles, as well as executing combined missile and drone attacks.

As they carried out devastating attacks on Iran, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu called on the Iranian people to overthrow the ruling theocratic regime. However, Iranian society has demonstrated its commitment and loyalty to their national interests. The current regime, despite suffering significant losses among its leaders (from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to military commanders), has shown its resilience and its ability to govern under critical conditions. The election of a new Supreme Spiritual Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, by the Assembly of Experts was the Iranian people’s response to the humiliating demands made upon their sovereign state.

The interest of the US and Israel resides in escalating the conflict and drawing new countries into the anti-Iranian coalition, particularly the states bordering Iran, such as Iraq, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. They are also seeking to wreak havoc on Iran’s territorial integrity from within along ethnic lines, placing their bets on the support of Kurds and Azerbaijanis. However, in Iraq, the recent American betrayal of the Kurdish movement in Syrian Rojava is still alive in the memories of the representatives of the Kurdish political factions, who  therefore have no desire to become “pawns” in Mr. Trump’s hands once again.

The missile and drone strikes on the territories of Turkey and Azerbaijan on 4, 5, and 9 March, attributed to Iran, were evidently provoked by Israeli intelligence services with the aim of dragging Ankara and Baku into the conflict against Tehran. Turkey has no intention of subjecting its territory to massive Iranian military strikes and seeing its energy and military infrastructure annihilated, including facilities housing American nuclear warheads at Incirlik Air Base and the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant. Consequently, Ankara will also restrain its ally Baku from being drawn into the Iranian conflict, which would inevitably create new dividing lines in the region.

The US on the Brink of Failure and Humanitarian Crisis

Planning of a ground operation by the US-Israeli coalition against Iran without the use of bordering territories is doomed to failure. In an attempt to change the situation, the US has taken a desperate step: on 7 March, a strike was carried out against a desalination plant on the Iranian island of Qeshm, disrupting the water supply to 30 settlements in the region. Iran, on its part, may echo the actions in response.

A Chinese expert, Professor Jiang Xueqin, has reminded the Pentagon of the possibility of an asymmetric response by Iran to the US aggression, specifically targeting the desalination systems of Arab countries in the Persian Gulf. These nations are critically dependent on desalinated water: Qatar obtains 99% of its drinking water this way, Bahrain and Kuwait 90%, Saudi Arabia 70%, and the UAE 45%. Pinpoint Iranian strikes on large and extremely costly desalination plants, which cannot be moved or hidden, could rapidly precipitate a large-scale humanitarian crisis in the oil-rich nations of the Persian Gulf.

Furthermore, according to a list published by the Iranian Tasnim news agency, potential targets for strikes by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Middle East include the offices, banks, and infrastructure facilities of leading American companies having ties with Israel, such as Google, Microsoft, IBM, Nvidia, Oracle, and Palantir. This would inflict an irreparably detrimental effect on American interests in the region.

The US’s haphazard tactics in Iran, ranging from strikes on nuclear facilities to attacks on the civilian water supply infrastructure, are not only leading to the regionalisation of the conflict but are in fact plunging it into military chaos.

The Military Strategy Impasse and Calls for Negotiations

The lack of any prospect for a military victory brings up the need for resuming the negotiations. Donald Trump, in his characteristic manner of exaggerating his own achievements, regularly claims to be “ahead of the schedule” by 4-5 weeks, that the US “hasn’t even started fighting yet,” and is preparing to strike an “unprecedented blow.” However, experts point to the rapidly depleting stocks of munitions, particularly for air defence and anti-missile systems. The US is forced to redeploy new reserves of weaponry, such as THAAD anti-missile systems, from other regions of the world (for example, from South Korea) to the Middle East. The US is spending $900 million daily on this war.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has expressed Tehran’s deep disappointment with Washington’s “inability to negotiate in good faith,” citing that the US has twice deceived Iran and launched attacks during negotiation processes. Iran refuses to surrender and is prepared to continue hostilities. IRGC generals state that their accumulated arsenal allows for combat operations to continue for ten years. But does President Trump have the mandate and the guarantee of remaining in power in the US for another ten years?

US Senator Chris Murphy, who participated in a closed briefing on the Iran war, stated that “the situation is completely unsystematic” and the US “will not be able to achieve any of its stated goals.” He emphasized, “There is no way to destroy their nuclear programme, because the large part of it is underground, unless we launch a ground invasion – which would be even more catastrophic.”

The US has failed to definitively destroy Iran’s nuclear programme, its missile arsenal, or its ruling regime. The killing of Ali Khamenei, as the practice has shown, did not bring the system to collapse. Meanwhile, Tehran, foreseeing the inevitability of a military conflict with the US, has been preparing for it for years.

Iran is currently employing a tactic of “dispersed strikes”: attacking US energy and military infrastructure in the Middle East, damaging American economic interests and its image in the region. Tehran uses inexpensive drones as tools to test and degrade expensive American and Israeli air defence and anti-missile systems.

Saudi Arabia has already cooled towards the war against Iran, unwilling to see further destruction of its infrastructure provoked by the Americans. The UAE is also coming out against the use of its territory and airspace for continuing the US-Israeli war. The stance taken by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has caused displeasure in the US. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham* has even threatened them with adverse consequences.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, for his part, has called for an end to the war before it engulfs the entire region. Russia, China, Turkey, France, Spain, and other countries are urging the belligerents to cease the conflict with Iran and resume negotiations. But on what terms?

Tehran’s Stipulations and the Predictions of the “Chinese Nostradamus”

In response to calls to “give diplomacy a whirl,” Iran has laid out its conditions: the US must provide written guarantees renouncing aggression, pay Tehran reparations for the destruction caused, refrain from interfering with Iran’s internal affairs, and recognise Iran’s right to independently pursue its nuclear programme.

These maximalist conditions from Iran can be seen as a forced reaction to the peremptory and humiliating demands made by the US and Israel. In the US, euphoria is giving way to pessimism. The predictions of the “Chinese Nostradamus,” Jiang Xueqin, who foresaw Trump’s election victory, the war with Iran, and America’s defeat in it, are appearing increasingly realistic. Two of them have already come to pass: Trump became president and unleashed a war with Iran…

However, diplomacy presupposes compromise. A war that does not end with the capitulation of one side must lead to a peace agreement that ensures lasting peace, security, and prosperity for the Middle East.

*added to the list of individuals for whom there is information regarding involvement in extremist activities or terrorism

Alexander Svarants – PhD in Politics, Professor, Specialist in Turkish Studies, and Expert on the countries of the Middle East

Follow new articles on our Telegram channel

© New Eastern Outlook