The Ethiopia–Tigray Crisis: The Fragile Peace That Failed to Hold

The Pretoria Agreement brought an end to Ethiopia’s devastating Tigray war—but not its underlying disputes. Four years later, renewed fighting and shifting armed alliances are threatening to reopen the conflict. The consequences could extend far beyond Tigray, destabilising the wider Horn of Africa.

Historical Background

The two-year Ethiopian civil war started in November 2020 and moved toward an end with the signing of the Pretoria Agreement on 2 November 2022. The immediate origins were Ethiopia’s internal political crisis after Abiy came to power in 2018, the breakdown of relations between the federal government and the TPLF, the creation of the Prosperity Party, disputes over elections and constitutional authority, and ultimately the November 2020 attack on the ENDF Northern Command. From 1991 to 2018, the TPLF was the dominant force within the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The conflict escalated when Oromo politician Abiy Ahmed became the Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2018.

After becoming prime minister in April 2018, one of Abiy’s early major foreign-policy initiatives was to normalise relations with Eritrea, for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, but the TPLF opposed the plan. According to the TPLF, Eritrea has caused so much damage to Ethiopia that they cannot maintain cordial relations anymore. Secondly, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed merged ethnic and region-based parties of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)into his new “Prosperity Party” to most likely end the power monopoly of the TPLF.

The Ethiopian federal government, Eritrean forces and allied regional forces fought against the TPLF and its forces in Tigray. The TPLF attacked the ENDF’s Northern Command in Mekelle in November 2020, an action the federal government described as an assault on the national military and which marked the beginning of full-scale war. Eritrean forces entered........

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