Opinion | Mafia, Scams and Shifting Loyalties: How Mamata Banerjee Lost The Plot

Updated: May 06, 2026 18:01 pm IST Published On May 06, 2026 17:21 pm IST Last Updated On May 06, 2026 18:01 pm IST

Published On May 06, 2026 17:21 pm IST

Last Updated On May 06, 2026 18:01 pm IST

In any election, there is never just one reason behind how people vote. Outcomes are shaped by multiple forces working together over time. West Bengal has a population of roughly ten crore, with around six crore voters - figures that can be verified - but the larger point remains: no single factor explains such a political shift.

Over the past two years, I have travelled across almost every district in the state. Based on those observations, a clearer picture begins to emerge.

The first and most visible factor was strong anti-incumbency against the Trinamool Congress government. Fifteen years in power had inevitably created fatigue. Anti-incumbency, after all, is almost a law of nature: what rises must eventually face decline.

The second factor was something I noticed consistently across districts: the rise of local strongmen. In many places, groups of 'goons' operated under political protection. They exercised control, often through intimidation, and gradually a culture of extortion took root. This was particularly visible in sectors like real estate - everything from sand supply to cement distribution became part of a larger patronage network. For many, this system became a livelihood, but it also created a coercive structure in which ordinary people had to pay "cuts" not just to local political figures but, in some cases, to the police as well.

Small party offices often became centres of local authority,........

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