Opinion | SCO Was Once Russia's Backyard. How China Is Now Closing In

Updated: Sep 01, 2026 15:02 pm IST Published On Sep 01, 2026 15:02 pm IST Last Updated On Sep 01, 2026 15:02 pm IST

Published On Sep 01, 2026 15:02 pm IST

Last Updated On Sep 01, 2026 15:02 pm IST

Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan - is undergoing a significant geopolitical transformation. The region is moving away from the Russia-dominated order that shaped much of its post-Soviet history towards an increasingly China-centric economic landscape. Yet, this is not a straightforward Chinese takeover. Russia retains substantial security, cultural, and institutional influence, while Central Asian states themselves are pursuing increasingly sophisticated multi-vector policies to preserve strategic autonomy.The emerging order is, therefore, better understood as a redistribution of influence: China is acquiring economic primacy, Russia retains residual strategic leverage, and Central Asian governments are seeking to maximise their room for manoeuvre by diversifying external partnerships. The Ukraine war has accelerated a process that was already underway.

From Russia's Backyard, To China's

Russian influence in Central Asia has deep historical roots. Imperial expansion during the nineteenth century incorporated the region into the Russian political system, while the Soviet Union subsequently integrated it through centralised planning, Russian-language education, shared infrastructure, and elite networks. The Soviet economic architecture was particularly important. Railways, pipelines, and electricity grids were largely oriented northwards towards Russia, while Russian became the region's principal lingua franca. Military institutions, industrial supply chains, and political elites further reinforced Moscow's influence.

Independence in 1991 did not immediately change this structural dependence. Russia remained the principal external actor through security arrangements, energy transit, arms supplies, labour migration, and cultural ties. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan joined the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, while millions of Central Asian workers migrated to Russia, generating significant remittances. Central Asian governments formally adopted multi-vector foreign policies, but geography and inherited infrastructure limited their ability to diversify. For much of the post-Soviet period, Russia remained the unavoidable centre of the region's external relationships.

China's growing role has fundamentally altered this equation. Beijing's engagement accelerated after the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in Kazakhstan in 2013. Central........

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