Opinion | Dalit Vote In Uttar Pradesh: From BSP Monopoly To A Three-Way Fight

Oct 30, 2026 18:21 pm IST

As the 2027 election approaches, Dalits, who make up about one in five voters, could decide who governs India's most populous state. Uttar Pradesh's politics has long run on caste arithmetic, and no bloc has been more consequential or more contested in recent years than the Dalits. Scheduled Castes (SCs) account for about 21% of the state's population. For decades, they were seen as the private preserve of Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). That is no longer true. Ahead of the 2027 assembly election, the BJP, the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance, and newer outfits like Azad Samaj Party are all courting Dalit voters, and their outcome could shape the next government.A vote that reaches far

The Dalit population is not evenly spread. Kaushambi, Sitapur, Hardoi, Rae Bareli, and Unnao districts each have SC populations above 30%. At the other end, Shamli, Baghpat, Moradabad, Bareilly, and Balrampur districts sit between 11% and 13%.

Eight assembly seats have an SC population above 40%, while 144 seats have less than 10%. It matters most in the 122 seats where SCs make up 20-30% of the population. Across 148 of the state's 403 seats, the Dalit share exceeds the state average, and these are the seats where the community can most influence the result.

Two communities, not one

The Dalit electorate is not monolithic. Jatavs, about 12% of voters, are the BSP's traditional core. Non-Jatav SCs, about 9%, are a more fragmented group, and the BSP was never as dominant among them. Its support there ran between 44% and 54% through 2017. Jatavs stayed loyal for two decades. BSP support in........

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